2023全球债务监测.pdf

Fiscal Affairs Department|International Monetary Fund|September 2023 1 GLOBAL DEBT MONITOR 2023 Recent Developments1 Total global debt(public plus private debt stocks)fell 10 percentage points of GDP in 2022 to 238 percent of GDP(Figure 1 and Table 1).In US dollar terms,debt amounted to USD 235 trillion,or USD 200 billion above its level in 2021.The decline in the last two years amounted to 20 percentage points of GDP,supported by the rebound in economic activity,after a sharp contraction in the early stages of the pandemic,and higher-than-expected inflation.Nevertheless,the reduction corrected about 2/3 of the massive increase in global debt during the pandemic in 2020.The worlds public debt declined 3.6 percentage points to 92 percent of GDP in 2022(Table 2),or just above USD 91 trillion.The 8 percentage points decline in the last two years offset only about a half of its pandemic-1 Prepared by Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro(team leader),Jiae Yoo(team co-leader),Victoria Haver,Youssouf Kiendrebeogo,Roberto Perrelli,Zhonghao Wei,and Chenlu Zhang,with assistance from Meron Haile,and related surge,as global public debt remained 7.5 percentage points above its 2019 level.Private debt,which includes household and non-financial corporate debt stocks,drove the overall reduction(Table 3).It dropped 6.4 percentage points to 146 percent of GDP in 2022(or close to USD 144 trillion).The fall in global private debt over the last two years,12 percentage points in cumulative terms,almost offsets the 14-percentage points surge in 2020,bringing it close to 2019 levels.The debt developments,however,varied across country groups and types of debts(Figure 2):Advanced economies(AEs)led the overall reduction,as their average debt fell 12.2 percentage points to 278 percent of GDP in 2022.The fall in private debt accelerated,in 2022,as private credit under the guidance of Era Dabla-Norris and Vitor Gaspar.Highlights Global debt declined 10 percentage points of GDP and reached 238 percent of GDP in 2022.In U.S.dollars,global debt remained stable at USD 235 trillion.The fall in public debt slowed compared to the previous year,as it fell 3.6 percentage points of GDP to 92 percent of GDP in 2022.The fall over the last two years reversed about a half of the surge during the pandemic.Private debt by households and non-financial corporations made the largest contribution to the overall decline,as it dropped 6.4 percentage points of GDP to 146 percent of GDP in 2022.In many countries,especially in advanced economies and emerging markets excluding China,private debt is now below their pre-pandemic levels.The two years of large declines,amounting to 20 percentage points of GDP,only partially reversed the spike from the pandemic,as global debt remained 9 percentage points of GDP above its pre-pandemic level in 2022.Global debt appears to have returned to its historical upward trend.Managing debt vulnerabilities should be key.2023 Global Debt Monitor Fiscal Affairs Department|International Monetary Fund|September 2023 2 growth slowed with the tightening of monetary policy and financial conditions.Household and non-financial corporate debts in AEs came down to 74 and 93 percent of GDP,respectively,close to their respective pre-pandemic levels.Public debt continued to fall in 2022 to 114 percent of GDP.It,however,remained well above its pre-pandemic level by 8 percentage points of GDP.Debt in emerging markets(EMs)excluding China fell 7.6 percentage points to reach 124 percent of GDP in 2022.As in AEs,private debt drove the overall decline.Private debt dropped by 4.5 percentage points to 69 percent of GDP,as household and non-financial corporate debts in 2022 fell below their respective pre-pandemic levels.Public debt declined 3 percentage points in 2022.However,the dip in public debt over the last two years reversed only two-thirds of the surge seen during the pandemic.Public debt stood at 55 percent of GDP,still 3.3 percentage points of GPD higher than its pre-pandemic level in 2019.In contrast,debt in China rose 7.3 percentage points of GDP to 272 percent of GDP in 2022.Public debt kept rising in 2021-2022,unlike most other countries,by 7 percentage points to reach 77 percent of GDP.Private debt increased too in 2022 to 195 percent of GDP.Overall,total debt in 2022 rose 25 percentage points of GDP above its pre-pandemic level.Debt in low-income developing countries(LIDCs)has not fallen.Total debt increased by about percentage points of GDP to 88 percent of GDP in 2022.This was driven by a similar increase in private debt,which reached a new high of 39 percent of GDP in 2022.Meanwhile,public debt persisted at 48 percent of GDP.For many LIDCs with a high share of foreign borrowing,exchange rate depreciation pushed up their debt burdens.Facing the increased financing needs in the aftermath of the pandemic and under pressure to respond to the cost-of-living crisis,reducing debt has become more challenging.These factors deteriorated risk perceptions for LIDCs,with market access,contributing to harsher financing terms in markets(Figure 3).Historical trends in global debt Already in 2019,global debt-to-GDP ratios had been on rising trends for several decades(Figure 4).Public debt in AEs fell over a long period in 1950-1974,as economies grew fast after the end of World War II.In LIDCs,the surge in public debts in 1980s and early 1990s was followed by a significant drop over the subsequent decade,aided by a slew of debt relief and financial support,often accompanied by structural adjustment reforms.Even with some highs and lows,overall,the upward trend is evident.Since the early 1970s,global public debt has tripled from about 30 percent of GDP to over 90 percent of GDP by 2022.Global private debt has been on a steadier historical rise(Figure 5).A notable exception is the deleveraging following the Global Financial Crisis(GFC)in several AEs,especially in the household sector in the U.S.(Figure 6).Over the decade following the GFC,while private debts remained broadly stable in AEs,they rose faster than before in EMs,remarkably in China,and LIDCs,albeit from a relatively low level.Overall,global private debt tripled between 1960 and 2022.China has been an important force driving global debt in recent decades.For China,COVID-19 is less visible in the debt charts than other countries,as its debt has grown since 2020 unlike other countries.What is visible is decades-long fast debt accumulation.Chinas total debt-to-GDP ratio increased almost four-fold from around 70 percent,in mid-1980s,close to the average EM levels then,to 272 percent of GDP,close to the U.S.level in 2022(Table 1).In dollar terms Chinas total debt(USD 47.5 trillion)is still markedly below that of the United States(close to USD 70 trillion),though.The rise in Chinas debt ratio to GDP was unparalleled in other large 2023 Global Debt Monitor Fiscal Affairs Department|International Monetary Fund|September 2023 3 economies(Figure 7)2.The increase became considerably steeper from 2009 onwards,notably by the non-financial corporate debt(Figure 8).Comparing historical data to a hypothetical scenario where Chinas debt-to-GDP ratio grew at the same rate annually as the average among other EMs highlights a major contribution of the rise in Chinas debt to the increase in global debt since 2008.Over half of the increase in the global debt-to-GDP ratio in the period 2008-2022 can be attributed to the rapid increase in Chinas debt-to-GDP ratio above the rest of world(Figure 9).Back on the rising trend A lesson from recent history appears to be that once debt surges,it rarely returns to the previous level.After three years of the“rollercoaster,”global debt is likely to rise again over the medium-term,under business-as-usual.The macroeconomic conditions that provided great relief to debt ratios in 2021-2022 will not last(Figure 10).The rebound of real GDP growth is fading.Inflation is projected to stabilize at a low level over the medium term(July 2023 WEO Update).If global debt resumes its rising trend going forward,the debt rollercoaster since the pandemic will look nothing more than a temporary deviation around its long-term rising trend.Governments should adopt strategies to help reduce debt vulnerabilities over the medium term.This includes vigilant monitoring of household and non-financial corporate debt burdens and related financial stability risks.To reduce public debt vulnerabilities,building a credible medium-term fiscal framework can guide the process to balance short-term spending needs with medium fiscal sustainability(April 2023 Fiscal Monitor).LIDCs,in particular,may face greater challenges in managing debt vulnerabilities 2 Only a handful of small economies experienced larger increases in private debt than China during the period even at relatively low debt levels.In 2022,LIDCs spent 23 percent of tax revenues on average just to make interest payments,as their tax revenues have remained stagnant while debt burdens have risen.Improving tax capacity and revenue mobilization should be a key priority to restore fiscal sustainability(Benitez and others,2023).More generally,raising medium-term growth across the globe(July 2023 WEO Update)would further help bringing down debt burdens.Structural reforms to boost potential output at national level would support that goal.Internationally,cooperation on taxation and carbon pricing could further alleviate pressures on public financing and encourage necessary private investments by mobilizing resources.References Benitez,Juan Carlos,Mario Mansour,Miguel Pecho,and Charles Vellutin,2023,“Building Tax Capacity in Developing Countries,July 2023,IMF Staff Discussion Note,Washington,DC:International Monetary Fund Gaspar,Vitor,Paulo Medas,and Roberto Perrelli,2023,“Riding the Global Debt Rollercoaster,”December 2022,Washington,IMF,2023,“Chapter 1:On the Path to Policy Normalization,”Fiscal Monitor,April.Washington,DC:International Monetary Fund IMF,2023,“World Economic Outlook Update,”July 2023,Washington,DC:International Monetary Fund 1995-2022,namely Luxembourg,Hong Kong SAR and Cambodia.2023 Global Debt Monitor Fiscal Affairs Department|International Monetary Fund|September 2023 4 Frequently Asked Questions What is the IMF Global Debt Database(GDD)?The IMF Global Debt Database(GDD)is a dataset covering private and public debt for virtually the entire world(190 countries)dating back to the 1950s.The GDD is the result of a multiyear investigative process that started with the October 2016 Fiscal Monitor,which pioneered the expansion of private debt series to a global sample.Where can I find the original paper the conceived the GDD?Please refer to Mbaye,S.,Moreno-Badia,M.,and K.Chae.2018.“Global Debt Database:Methodology and Sources,”IMF Working Paper,International Monetary Fund,Washington,DC.How the GDD differs from other debt databases?It differs in three major ways.First,where most debt datasets either provide long series with a narrow and changing definition of debt or comprehensive debt concepts over a short period,the GDD adopts a multidimensional approach by offering multiple debt series with different coverages,for instance covering various levels of government for public debt statistics,to ensure consistency over time.Second,it more than doubles the cross-sectional dimension of existing private debt datasets.Finally,the integrity of the data has been checked through bilateral consultations with officials and IMF country desks of all countries in the sample.Further,the GDD reports data for both public and private debt covering a larger number of countries than most other databases and the longest time dimension.The 2022 update covers 190 countries for the period 1950-2021,including a large coverage of debt statistics of emerging market and low-income countries,which are often lacking in most other datasets,particularly for SOE and private sector debt.The GDD relies on primary sources,while alternative databases,especially those produced by researchers,rely on secondary sources to collect debt data.The reported debt series are compiled without recourse to extrapolation,interpolation,or auxiliary regressions.Original data series are adjusted for differences in definition and coverage whenever feasible.How often is the Global Debt Database updated?Until 2022,the GDD was updated annually in December of the following year of latest data availability.The release date has been advanced to September from 2023 onwards.Which public debt series are available in the GDD?The public debt series correspond to gross debt and aim at covering all debt instruments owed by the general and/or central government,as defined in the IMFs Public Debt Statistics:Guide for Compilers 2011.The GDD provides available debt statistics for central government debt,general government debt,and non-financial public sector debt.Public debt refers to gross debt owed by the general and/or central government,as defined in the IMFs Public Debt Statistics:Guide for Compilers 2011.It covers the following instruments:(i)loans;(ii)debt securities;(iii)currency and deposits;(iv)insurance,pension,and standardized guarantee schemes;(v)other accounts payable;and(vi)and special drawing rights.The GDD covers SOE debts for countries where public debt series cover the nonfinancial public sector/public sector(in which cases,the debt of SOEs is included in the public sector)or private debt series come from financial accounts(in which case,SOEs are included in private debt series).Which private debt series are available in the GDD?The GDD reports on household and non-financial private corporate debt.Private sector debt is defined as the gross outstanding stock of all liabilities that are debt instruments,in line with the System of National Accounts 2008.Cross-border debt flows are considered.To ensure accuracy,a comprehensive validation exercise is conducted with IMF country desks and officials.Data discrepancies are addressed by consulting country officials,statisticians,and other data compilers(e.g.,BIS,OECD,World Bank).How is public debt in the Global Debt Database calculated?The GDD builds on the IMFs Historical Public Debt Database(HPDD)(Abbas and others,2011)improving it along three dimensions.First,it reports separate series for general and central government debt.In addition,it includes data on the nonfinancial public sector and public sector(subject to data availability).Second,it fills in more than three-quarters of existing breaks in the HPDD series by relying on a wider range of sources and distinguishing between central and general government debt.Third,the GDD expands the HPDDs country coverage by tenmostly low-income developing countries.How is private debt in the Global Debt Database calculated?The GDDs approach to compiling private debt statistics builds and improves upon the methodology developed by the BIS(Dembiermont,Drehmann,and Muksakunratana 2013).The original BIS sample was expanded to include