中国数字经济2021年度盘点与2022年度预测.pdf

Confidential?and?Protected?by?Copyright?Laws?2021?2022?2?l2021?l2021?够?l?务?l?务?Analysys?l?APP?够?APP?BAT?CONTENTS0102030405?015?的?务?的?务?模?27.231.335.839.242.420.35%15.07%14.38%9.50%8.16%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%05101520253035404520172018201920202021E2017-2021E?19.10%19.80%20.50%22.60%23.00%25.70%80.90%80.20%79.50%77.40%77.00%74.30%202020192018201720162015?研?6?去?务?2021?Q1?2021?2020?导?告?2020?务?去?6.196.035.855.89?5.84?5.99?6.11?6.37?6.72?6.60?6.63?6.67?-7.47%-9.32%-9.72%-10.81%-11.50%0.06%3.07%6.17%15.60%6.70%9.87%14.02%-15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%5.45.65.866.26.46.66.82021.12021.22021.32021.42021.52021.62021.72021.82021.92021.102021.112021.12E?2021?0.28%0.30%0.35%0.37%0.37%0.35%0.31%-0.04%0.36%0.07%0.24%2019Q2Q3Q42020Q1Q2Q3Q42021Q1Q2Q3Q4E2019Q2-2021Q4?7?务?去?封?2021?封?6.20%6.50%7.30%8.20%8.90%16.80%17.20%18.30%19.50%21.00%29.60%32.60%35.90%37.80%40.70%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%45.00%201620172018201920202016-2020?研?05001000150020002500300002004006008001000120014001600?2021?1-11?研?研?研?2021?11?21?8?5G?2022?封?/?20202025?IoT?研?9?0211?2021?务?封?封?7?26?8?17?9?9?9?13?QQ?12?社?模?模?研?2021?7.26-27?20%?导?SaaS?SaaS?SaaS13?封?2021?映?封?2021?1.?封?2.?3.?4.?+?+?14?够?0316?2021?2021?2020?2021?10%?封?DTC?C2M?,?90?Z?2020?11?2021?1?务?11?务?65%6987865%69878?11?11360700+2 0 2 1?1 120192020202117?的?的?2022?的?0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%20182019202020212022E?CVC?Seesaw?WAT?55?2018-2022E?研?研?研?18?封?1.?2.?导?务?封?封?告?的?导?19?2022?封?封?去?1962-1975?2022?映?60?封?封?10?00?00?研?x?00?050010001500200025003000350019571958195919601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979?3.5?/?/?024681012141618?00?%?0421?2021?2021?研?封?-16.00%-14.00%-12.00%-10.00%-8.00%-6.00%-4.00%-2.00%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%7.588.599.51010.51?2?3?4?5?6?7?8?9?10?11?12?E2021?-15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.001?2?3?4?5?6?7?8?9?10?11?12?E2021?(?22?2021?务?告?6.2%?导?封?221.30?263.51?292.77?349.13?342.75?360.14?419.21?445.05?010020030040050060070020142015201620172018201920202021?研?2021?封?封?2021?7.63?7?2021?IPO?23?,?务?务?封?务?封?封?研?30.7653.0872.2882.7695.86116.0?154.5180.1369.00%72.56%36.17%14.50%15.83%20.96%33.25%16.59%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%02040608010012014016018020020142015201620172018201920202021?2014-2021务?封?2020202120202021?MOBA!?Top100?Top100?24?VR?+?封?VR?VR?5G?VR?2020?模?去?Oculus Quest 2?Alyx?封?封?VR?导?去?VR?封?VR?导?去?VR?封?够封?VR?告?VR?VR?VR?2021?Q1?Oculus Quest 2?Meta?封?Oculus Go?Oculus Quest 1?Oculus Rift?VR?VR?封?2012Oculus?Rift?2015HTC?Vive封?2018Oculus?go?HTC?Vive?Focus封?Oculus?HTC?封?Alyx?封?2019Oculus Quest 2?封?Vive Focus PlusOculus?Rift?SMeta?Within?VRGlassPicoNeo3?2020.32020.92020.10202125?2021?封?2021?确?40.08%39.02%42.80%42.64%43.74%45.36%44.07%44.71%46.48%45.08%45.92%46.80%34.00%36.00%38.00%40.00%42.00%44.00%46.00%48.00%1?2?3?4?5?6?7?8?9?10?11?12?E2021?的?务?26?MAU?AUM?映?AUM?AUM?导?去?封?务?务?2020?务?封?导?AUM?to?to?AUM?39638311216519024126820082010201220142016201820202021E?研?0528?2021?去务?2009?1109?2019?7562.3?务?告?映?2021?映?去?1212.312.412.812.612.512.612.612.612.91313.214.11516171819.320.22121.721.922.32020.12020.22020.32020.42020.52020.62020.72020.82020.92020.102020.112020.122021.12021.22021.32021.42021.52021.62021.72021.82021.92021.102021.11?(?)?MCU?MCU?研?Susquehanna?Financial?Group?Bloomberg29?封?告?封?PC?封?尽?封?封?封?2025?70%?封?务?X86?ARM?务?RISC-V?AI?SoCPC?AIoT?30%70%?2019?2025?30?L2.5?L3?务?封?2021?11?19%?封?够(2021?2035?)?20%?2021?APP?导?2021?12?DrivePilot L3?UN-R157?够2022?L3?去?2022?L3?2022?L3?2022?L3?16.810.621.219.320.424.12730.734.136.642.7398.229.1711.31 11.3312.3915.3614.4819.7819.4718.2419.4823.7805101520250510152025303540451?2?3?4?5?6?7?8?9?10?11?12?E2021?2021?2021?%?研?111.41108.85116.05110.27113.12125.13128.98130.68137.00?141.78143.40?146.730204060801001201401601?2?3?4?5?6?7?8?9?10?11?12?E2021?APP?(?)31?2021?映?确?Robotaxi?Robotaxi?Robotaxi?2021?11?Robotaxi?的?Robotaxi?Robobus?Robotaxi?2021?Robotaxi?Robotaxi?Robotaxi?Robotaxi?32?岁?务?的?告?模?0.021.11.41.72.14.318.140.144.163.487.0?144.3203.7201320142015201620172018201920202021E2022E2023E2024E2025E?研?模?封?33?务?,?2018?2021?务?研?/?的?务?研?务?17%15%9%3%18%2%29%17%13%8%3%1%AI/ML?/?/?20212018322018171429369412?DTC?务?研?Pitchbook?2021?11?研?CB?insights?2021?12?30?34?AI?5G?VRAR?TikTok?去?