世界海运市场预测.pdf

SEPTEMBER 2023 PUBLICATION DATE AUGUST 31ST,2023OCEAN FREIGHTMARKET UPDATEDHL Global Forwarding Excellence.Simply delivered.UNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)UNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)ContentsOcean Freight Market update September 2023DHL Global Forwarding|OFR Market Update|September 202321Topic of the month Record deliveries2Market outlook3Economic outlook&demand development4Capacity 5Carriers6Rules&Regulations7Ports8Did you knowShipping DecarbonizationUNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)Topic of the monthRecord deliveries3Source:Alphaliner,DynaLinersMSC alone accounted for 39%of the deliveries,broadening the gap tosecond-ranked Maersk Line.Alphaliners orderbook projections howevershow that MSC will further expand its lead over the next weeks and months.MSCs rapid growth was mainly fueled by newbuilding deliveries and second-hand buying.Thus,Maersk Lines market share has dropped to 15%.In addition,the carrierhad the smallestorder-book inproportion to its fleet of alltop carriers.From an actual volume shipped perspective however,Maersk still ranksbefore MSC,and right after leaderCOSCO.Deliveries will remain high over the next months.While the new CII and EEXIregulations have created some artificial tonnage demand though mandatedslow-steaming,cargo volumes will most certainly not grow enough to absorball new deliveries.Alphaliner therefore believes that large chunks of todaysvessel new-building pipeline will be for fleet renewal,rather than fleetgrowth.DHL Global Forwarding|OFR Market Update|September 2023Vessel deliveries reached almost 300000 TEU in JuneVessel Deliveries by MonthRankkTEUGrowth2022Carrier20202021202220/2121/221COSCO26344 26344 24412 0.0%-7.3%2Maersk25268 26178 23848 3.6%-8.9%3MSC23700 23300 23000-1.7%-1.3%4CMA CGM20980 22040 21740 5.1%-1.4%6ONE11964 12061 11081 0.8%-8.1%5Hapag-Lloyd11839 11872 11843 0.3%-0.2%7Evergreen7050 7430 7730 5.4%4.0%9Wan Hai4500 4800 4300 6.7%-10.4%8Yang Ming5071 4410 4610-13.0%4.5%10PIL3900 4100 4000 5.1%-2.4%11HMM3894 3817 3682-2.0%-3.5%12ZIM2841 3481 3380 22.5%-2.9%Total Top 12147351 149833 143626 1.7%-4.1%Estimated world total173100 183300 176000 5.9%-4.0%Carriers by Actual Volume ShippedUNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)High level market developmentDHL Global Forwarding|OFR Market Update|September 202341)Real GDP,Copyright IHS Markit,now part of S&P Global,Q2 2023 Update 1 June 23.All rights reserved;2)IHS Markit,now part of S&P Global,Q2 2023 Update 1 June 23.All rights reserved;3&4)Surcharges related to e.g.,equipment&space availability are not reflected in WCI&SCFI;3)Drewry,in USD/40ft container,including BAF&THC bothends,8 individual routes,excluding intra-Asia routes;4)Shanghai Shipping Exchange,in USD/20ft ctnr&USD/40ft ctnrfor US routes,including BAF,EBAF,CAF,PSS,WRS,PCS&SCS/SCF/PTF/PCC,excl.THC,15 routes from Shanghai;5)Source:DHL,in US$ECONOMIC OUTLOOK GDP GROWTH BY REGION1)INFLATION,YOY in%2)WORLD CONTAINER INDEX(WCI)3)SHANGHAI CONTAINERIZED FREIGHT INDEX(SCFI)4)10,00006,00012,0004,0002,0008,000Q1 20Q419Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 21Q4Q2 Q3 Q4 Q122Q2 Q3Q123Q3Q201,0005,0003,0002,0004,0006,000Q419Q1 20Q3Q2 Q3 Q4Q2Q1 21Q3 Q4Q122Q2Q123Q4Q2 Q3BUNKER PRICES 5)ActualActual400500600700800900S22ONADJ23FMMJJA16%2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027FCAGR(2024-27)AMER 1.3%1.2%1.8%2.1%2.0%2.0%ASPA 4.3%4.5%4.3%4.3%4.2%4.3%EURO 0.7%1.4%1.9%1.8%1.7%1.8%MEA 2.8%3.3%3.6%3.1%3.2%3.3%DGF World2.3%2.6%2.9%2.9%2.8%2.9%-202468102021202020172023F201820192022F2024F 2025F 2026F 2027FCNDEJPUKUSIFO 380VLSFUNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)Major trades Market outlook September 2023 month-on-month development5Source:DHL*incl Mexico and Central America/CenacStrong Increase+Strong Decline-Moderate Decline-Moderate Increase+No Change=KEYImport regionCapacityRateAMNO=/-AMLA&MX=-ASPA=/-MENAT=/-SSA=/-EUROPEImport regionCapacityRateEURO-AMNO-+AMLA+EC/=WC+EC/+WCASPA-/=+/=MENAT-+OCEANIA=+ASIA PACIFICImport regionCapacityRateEURO=AMLA=ASPA+=MENAT=/+-SSA=-NORTH AMERICAImport regionCapacityRatesEURO+-AMNO=ASPA=MENAT=/-SSA=-LATIN AMERICA*DHL Global Forwarding|OFR Market Update|September 2023UNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)Market outlook September 2023Ocean Freight rates Asia-Pacific exports6ASPA-EUROASPA-AMNOASPA-AMLAASPA-MENATASPA-ASPASource:DHLCarriers announcing additional blank sailings for September and October to balance out the market.Space expected to be tight Pre-Golden Week.Going into the last month before the China Golden Week,carriers are applying GRI and PSS effective September 1st.Space is expected to remain tight;origins should place booking 3-4 weeks in advance.Market remains strong with an increase in volumes in the peak season.Vessel utilization reported at 95%+.We see some carriers rolling cargo.There was an influx of additional capacity during August on the Asia to ECSA trade.Several carriers are offeringalternative services from Asia to the East Coast in transshipment through their European services.Rates to WCSA and Mexico haveexperienced steep increases in the last 5 weeks.We expect that the month of September will continue to be strong prior to softening after the Golden Week in the 1st week of October on both rates and utilizations.Pre-Golden Week rush is expected to take place and carriers have started to push for GRIs as early as mid Aug.Africas demand is very strong especially to East Africa.South Africas volumes are also gradually picking up steam.GRIs to East MED are losing momentum and rates are declining.But upcoming blank sailing plans can help to prop up rates if not stabilize them.Recent typhoon impact in CN is now having cascading impact to downstream ports and we can expect more delays in proforma schedules.Equipment is largely available from Asia ports.Demand and rates remain relatively stable for Intra Asia market.In contrast,IPBC demands remains soft thus carriers have increased the frequency of blank sailings for August in attempt to stabilize rates or to increase them.Some carriers have announced GRI in the market but the success of it remains uncertain.The blank sailings are projected to endure into September.Pre-Goldenweek rush is expected on both markets,hence tight space conditions are foreseeable.Origins are advised to secure bookings 3-4 weeks in advance in order to secure space and equipment.Disruptions from recent typhoons are leading to some delays.DHL Global Forwarding|OFR Market Update|September 2023UNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)Market outlook September 2023Ocean Freight rates Other major trades7EURO-AMNOEURO-ASPA+MEAAMNO-EUROAMNO-ASPAAMLA ExportsSource:DHLVolumes dropped during summer vacation.For time being we see no plans for capacity reduction plans,except for some blank sailings in August and September.Overall,the trade remains generally fluid.Inland transport capacities are usually sufficiently available,both in Europe and North America.Some equipment concerns have been raised in Europe due to low incoming volumes,but so far needs can be covered.Asia:space situation is still relaxed.No issues with capacity,only vessel delays.Blank sailings/suspension of services are still in place.Rates are still dropping slightlyAU/NZ:no space issues on both services.Rates on both services are slightly decreasing.MEA:currently no space issues reported.Carrier open for additional bookings.Rate levels remain under pressure due to low demand.Capacity remains stable with space available on all services.Slight rate decrease in Q3 mainly from USEC&Gulf.USWC rates remain on high level.FAK rates are stable with no further expected decrease through the end of Q3.No change to capacity.All services are open.AMLA AMNO&INTRA:Space is available for all destinations.The Market is expected to remain relatively flat for remainder of the year.ONE launching a new service ex South Atlantic ports to WCSA.AMLA ASPA:with the commencement of the new Cotton Season volumes,certain vessels are operating at full capacity,while supplementary loaders being introduced to enhance the service.Equipment situation has improved mainly for 40,with some ongoing challenges for 20 and reefer equipment.AMLA EURO,MENAT&SSA:New ONE/Cosco/OOCL VSA for SAEC EURO expected to disrupt an already weak market.Market for rates from MX to North EURO,Med and Mideast are still competitive,with containerized vessel space demand increasing slightly due to recent RORO capacity decrease.DHL Global Forwarding|OFR Market Update|September 2023UNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)Economic outlook&demand evolution Divergence becoming more apparent.8Source:S&P Global,a PMI at 50 is considered neutral,expanding above 50,and business shrinking below 50The eurozone is heading for a double dip.The HCOB Eurozone composite PMIoutput index fell to 48.6 in July,the lowest since Nov 22.The manufacturing output index was below 50 for the eighth straight month,dropping to just 42.7,its lowest level in over three years.Its services sibling,meanwhile,fell for the third straight month to 50.9,a six-month low.The ECB raised its policy rates by a further 25 basis points in July,lifting the deposit facility rate to 3.75%,matching its record high.Its communications left options open for upcoming policy meetings.However,given the deteriorating economic outlook and improvements in some of the alternative inflation metrics that S&P Global Market Intelligence tracks,they continue to forecast that the July hike will prove to be the last of the cycle.Mainland Chinas faltering recovery is set to prompt additional stimulus.Broad-based weakness is increasingly apparent.Further deterioration is likely in the absence of effective policy action.The central bank unexpectedly cut the medium-term facility rate by 15 basis points in mid-August,the largest reduction since 2020.S&P Global Market Intelligence expects additional near-term expansion of stimulus,including support for the property sector and further loosening of monetary conditions.More downward revisions to growth forecasts will follow should the scale and effectiveness of stimulus fallshort.Resumption of activity and inbound tourism in Japan,supported by the weak yen.However,the upward momentum will ease gradually.A persistent decline in purchasing power will continue to make consumers selective and suppress household expenditure.Although auto manufacturers maintain upbeat production plans,persistent sluggish external orders imply subdued production and exports in the second half of 2023.Monetary easing has started in Brazil and Chile,and Mexico and Peru will probably follow in fourth quarter 2023.Low inflation and,in part,weak demand have created the needed space for central banks in Brazil and Chile to start cutting their policy rates and move to a less restrictive monetary stance.The Peruvian economy has entered recession,and this may prompt the central bank to start easing monetary policy in the very near term as inflation has come down.The JPMorgan Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)compiled by S&P Global fell markedly again in July,to just 51.7,the weakest level since January.Slipping to 49.0,the global manufacturing output index was below the expansion level of 50 for the second straight month.The global business activity index for services fell to 51.7,almost three points below its May peak.The US economy reports unexpected strength in the middle quarters of the year.The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that GDP rose by 2.4%quarter over quarter annualized in the second quarter 0.9 percentage point above last months forecast.Hence,given lags from GDP to employment,there is now unlikely to be an easing of labor markets before 2024.In July,the unemployment rate declined for the second consecutive month to 3.5%,just one-tenth above the cycle low.S&P Global Market Intelligenceexpect the Fed to raise its policy rate to a peak of 5.50%-5.75%in November.However,they consider the upcoming September meeting to be“live,”with the outcome dependent on inflation reports to be published before then.They continue to forecast that a reversal of Fed policy tightening will begin from late spring 2024.EUROPEAMERICASASIA PACIFICEMERGING&DEVELOPING COUNTRIESDEMAND DEVELOPMENTDHL Global Forwarding|OFR Market Update|September 2023UNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)Capacity 1/29Source:Alphaliner,Dynaliners,CarriersDHL Global Forwarding|OFR Market Update|September 2023MSC and ZIM,the two top-10 carriers that showed the most growth in 2022,have againthis year added the most extra slots to their fleets.In the first half this year,MSC hasonce again outperformed all other top-10 carriers by increasing its nominal fleetcapacity by another 560,200 TEU(+12.2%).Percentagewise,only ZIM grew faster(+13.3%),in an increasing challengingand difficult marketfor the lineroperators.By comparison,the total cellular fleet has witnessed growth of just 3.5%in the first sixmonths of thisyear.The latest top 10 chart still shows the same rankings as at the beginning of the year,butthe fleetevolutionof theindividualcarriers isclearlyvery different.After reducing fleet capacity in 2022 by 1.4%,Maersk continued to sell ships of endchartersin the first halfof 2023,reducingits capacityagainby2.1%.CMA CGM,currently the global number three with a fleet of 625 vessels and 3.49 mTEU,appears to be on track to overtake Maersk and ascend to the number two position inthe not-too-distance future.In recent years,the Marseille-based shipping line has beenvery aggressive when it comes to placing newbuilding orders and it has amassed avessel pipe-line of at least 122 ships and 1.24 mTEU.Capacity-wise CMA CGMsorderbook is now the second largest after that of MSC.As per mid July,the French Linesorderbook standsat 35.5%of the carriers existingfleet capacity.MSC and ZIM are again the fastest growing carriers UNCLASSIFIED(PUBLIC)Capacity 2/210Source:Alphaliner,Dynaliners,CarriersDHL Global Forwarding|OFR Market Update|September 2023In June and July 10.8%of all regular sailings out of the 25 Central China Europe loops offered by the three big alliances werevoided.The three main alliances have blanked 24 sailings in June and July on 25 Central China to Europe loops.16 voyages toNorth Europe and 8 to the Med.THE Alliance has skipped the highest percentage of scheduled sailings.Slowing cargo demandis preventing MSC from launchinga weekly standaloneAsia Baltic Swanloop.Limiting capacity is expected to remove some pressure on spot freight rates.COSCO SHIPPING Lines,its sister company OOCL,and ONE will launch a new weekly liner service connecting Europe with the East Coast of South America.The first sailingwill be offered on 16 September from Montevideo with the COSCO-operated 4,051 TEU“XIN TAN TONG”.The service is expected to turn in eight weeks with a fleet of 4,000 5,000TEU panamaxships.COSCO will brand the new loop“ESE2”,whileOOCL and ONE will market the connection as the EEX and LUX.CarriersMajority investors of HMM finally launched a formal sale process for the privatization of the Korean shipping.Investors had until 21 August to submit their bids to buy anear-41%stake.Potential bidders included Hyundai Motor Group,LX Group,Samsung SDS,CJ Group,POSCO and Harim Group,as well as S