2023哥伦比亚能源政策审查.pdf

Energy Policy ReviewColombia 2023The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil,gas and coal supply and demand,renewable energy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand side management and much more.Through its work,the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 31 member countries,13 association countries and beyond.This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory,city or area.Source:IEA.International Energy Agency Website:www.iea.orgIEA member countries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TrkiyeUnited KingdomUnited StatesThe European Commission also participates in the work of the IEAIEA association countries:Argentina BrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingapore South Africa Thailand UkraineINTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCY 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS ENERGY INSIGHTS 1.Executive summary.7 Key recommendations.9 2.General energy policy.11 Country overview.11 Energy supply and demand.14 Energy strategies and targets.18 Energy data and statistics.22 Assessment.23 Recommendations.24 ENERGY SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION 3.Energy and climate change.27 Overview.27 Energy-related CO2 emissions.28 CO2 emissions drivers and carbon intensity.29 Climate change targets.30 Climate change mitigation policies.36 Climate adaptation and resilience.39 Assessment.41 Recommendations.45 4.Energy efficiency.49 Overview.49 Industry.51 Buildings and district heating.52 Transport.54 Assessment.57 5.Renewable energy.63 Overview.63 Trends in renewable energy by sector.64 Renewable energy targets.65 Assessment.73 Recommendations.75 ENERGY SECURITY 6.Electricity.77 IEA.CC BY 4.0.TABLE OF CONTENTS 4 Overview.77 Electricity supply and demand.78 Transmission and distribution.80 Cross-border interconnections.81 Market structure and regulation.81 Electricity security and emergency response.87 Assessment.90 Recommendations.95 7.Coal.97 Overview.97 Coal production and supply.98 Coal demand.100 Coal demand and supply outlook.101 Coal transitions.101 Coal policies.102 Assessment.105 Recommendations.107 8.Natural gas.109 Overview.109 Supply and demand.110 Gas infrastructure.114 Gas market structure.117 Gas policy.119 Assessment.121 Recommendations.124 9.Oil.125 Overview.125 Supply and demand.126 Prices and taxation.135 Oil security.136 Assessment.137 Recommendations.140 ENERGY SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION 10.Energy research,development and innovation.141 Overview.141 Strategies and priorities for energy research,development and innovation.142 A.Public funding for energy RD&D and innovation.143 IEA.CC BY 4.0.5 TABLE OF CONTENTS B.Knowledge management.144 C.Public support for business innovation and market creation.145 D.Monitoring and evaluation.145 Special focus:Hydrogen.146 Assessment.148 Recommendations.151 ANNEXES ANNEX A:Review team and supporting stakeholders.153 Review criteria.153 Review team and preparation of the report.153 ANNEX B:Key statistical data and notes.155 Footnotes to key statistical data.158 Statistical notes for data used in the report.158 ANNEX C:International Energy Agency“Shared Goals”.159 ANNEX D:Glossary and list of abbreviations.161 Acronyms and abbreviations.161 Units of measure.162 LIST OF FIGURES,TABLES AND BOXES Figures Figure 2.2 Energy production by source in Colombia,2005-2021.15 Figure 2.3 Total energy supply by source in Colombia,2005-2021.16 Figure 2.4 Colombias total energy supply and total final consumption,2021.16 Figure 2.5 Total final consumption by fuel in Colombia,2005-2021.17 Figure 2.6 Energy demand and electricity generation by fuel in Colombia,2021.17 Figure 2.7 Principles for just energy transitions.19 Figure 3.1 Greenhouse gas emissions by sector in Colombia,1990-2018 and targets.28 Figure 3.2 Energy-related CO2 emissions by sector in Colombia,2005-2021.28 Figure 3.3 Energy-related CO2 emissions by fuel in Colombia,2005-2021.29 Figure 3.4 Energy-related CO2 emissions and main drivers in Colombia,2000-2021.30 Figure 3.5 Global milestones under the IEA Net Zero Emissions Roadmap.35 Figure 4.1 Energy demand and drivers in Colombia,2000-2021.49 Figure 4.2 Total final consumption by sector in Colombia,2005-2021.50 Figure 4.3 Total final consumption in industry by source in Colombia,2005-2021.51 Figure 4.4 Total final consumption in buildings by source in Colombia,2005-2021.53 Figure 4.5 Total final consumption in transport by fuel in Colombia,2005-2021.55 Figure 4.6 Newly registered electric vehicles in Colombia each year,2012-2022.55 Figure 5.1 Renewables in total final energy consumption in Colombia,2005-2021.64 Figure 5.2 Renewable energy by sector in Colombia,2021.64 Figure 5.3 Renewables in electricity generation in Colombia,2005-2021.65 IEA.CC BY 4.0.TABLE OF CONTENTS 6 Figure 5.4 Colombias renewable capacity additions,2020-2027(left)and installed renewable capacity in IEA forecast vs.National Energy Plan(right).67 Figure 5.5 Outlook for electricity generation by source in Colombia,2020-2050.68 Figure 5.6 Renewables in transport in Colombia,2005-2021.71 Figure 6.1 Electricity generation by source in Colombia,2005-2021.79 Figure 6.2 Electricity demand by sector in Colombia,2005-2021.79 Figure 6.3 Colombias electricity network.80 Figure 6.4 Regulatory governance of Colombias electricity market.84 Figure 6.5 Monthly water inflows of Colombia,in%change from historic medium.87 Figure 6.6 Spot price versus scarcity price in Colombia,2007-2022.88 Figure 6.7 Firm energy balance by technology in Colombia,2023-2028.89 Figure 7.1 Share of coal the energy system in Colombia,2005-2021.98 Figure 7.2 Coal balance in Colombia,2005-2021.99 Figure 7.3 Coal exports by type of coal in Colombia,2021.100 Figure 7.4 Coal demand by sector in Colombia,2005-2021.100 Figure 7.5 The IEA Coal Transitions Exposure Index.101 Figure 8.1 Natural gas consumption and production in Colombia,2000-2021.110 Figure 8.2 Shares of natural gas in the Colombian energy system,2005-2021.110 Figure 8.3 Natural Gas reserves in Colombia.111 Figure 8.4 Production of natural gas in Colombia,2010-2020.112 Figure 8.5 Colombias imports and exports of natural gas,2007-2021.113 Figure 8.6 Natural gas final consumption by sector in Colombia,2005-2021.114 Figure 8.7 Gas infrastructure in Colombia.115 Figure 9.1 Shares of oil in the energy system of Colombia,2005-2021.126 Figure 9.2 Crude oil production and oil demand outlook in Colombia,2005-2028.127 Figure 9.3 Oil products production in Colombia,2005-2021.127 Figure 9.4 Oil products net trade in Colombia,2005-2021.128 Figure 9.5 Oil demand by sector in Colombia,2005-2021.129 Figure 9.6 Oil demand by product in Colombia,2021.130 Figure 9.7 Oil Infrastructure in Colombia.133 Figure 10.1 The IEAs four functions of a successful innovation ecosystem for energy 142 Tables Table 2.1 Energy subsidies and contributions by strata,2018,in COP million.21 Table 3.1 Overview of Colombias climate mitigation measures and their potential.31 Table 3.2 Colombias greenhouse gas mitigation targets by sector.32 Table 3.3 Carbon tax rates in Colombia,1 February 2023.36 Table 4.1 Colombias energy savings targets by 2030.51 Table 6.1 Installed generating capacity in Colombia 2021(MW).78 Table 6.2 Concentration in Colombias wholesale electricity generation.85 Table 9.1 Crude oil and oil product storage capacity in Colombia.134 Table 9.2 Oil product storage capacity in Colombia.135 Table 10.1.Low-emission hydrogen production projects in Colombia.148 Box Box 6.1 The Energy Transformation Mission.83 IEA.CC BY 4.0.7 ENERGY INSIGHTS 1.Executive summary Colombia has emerged as a leader in clean energy transition policy making and is an inspiring example of a fossil fuel producing country committed to climate action,based on a long-term decarbonisation pathway and a policy of energy and economic diversification and a just transition.In the context of the National Energy Plan 2020-2050,launched in 2016,Colombia started a journey to diversify its energy resources and ensure a reliable energy supply by promoting wind,solar and geothermal in the countrys electricity mix.At COP26,Colombia presented a net zero target and an ambitious Nationally Determined Contribution(NDC),aiming at a 51%reduction in greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions by 2030.These ambitions are reflected in the long-term strategy,the E2050 Strategy,the Energy Transition Law and the Climate Action Law.To implement its targets,Colombia uses a robust system of climate change management plans across government with targets assigned to each sector,including for energy(PIGCCme).The Energy Transition Law expanded policy actions and tax benefits to energy efficiency and low-carbon energy technologies,including geothermal,carbon capture and storage(CCS),and hydrogen.Colombias national oil company,Ecopetrol(Empresa Colombiana de Petroleos),is supporting the shift to low-carbon energy with investment plans for clean energy technology.In 2023,Colombias energy transition policy is at another crucial turning point,as the government targets the gradual shift to net zero,shifting away from an extractive industry model heavily dependent on oil and coal exports towards a more diversified clean energy economy based on investments in renewable energy sources,critical minerals and hydrogen.Colombia enjoys a strong natural resource base.Renewables accounted for more than a third of total final energy consumption in 2020,thanks to the significant role of conventional hydropower and bioenergy.In 2021,renewable energy accounted for 25%of Colombias total energy supply and for 29%of final consumption,substantially above the IEA average of 14%and made up 75%of electricity generation(compared to the IEA average of 30%).The government continues to expand non-conventional renewable energy,largely through long-term auctions for large-scale solar and wind developments.Extensive renewables potential in the La Guajira region should help advance rural electrification and close the energy access gap.Concentrated in the northern regions,which has a 50 gigawatt(GW)offshore wind potential,renewables can also provide the clean energy needed to jump-start Colombias hydrogen production.Colombias geothermal development also enjoys substantial potential along the Pacific ring of fire.In 2023,work is under way on updating the National Energy Plan(PEN)towards 2050,in line with Colombias new National Development Plan 2022-2026(PND)and energy and IEA.CC BY 4.0.1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8 climate goals towards decarbonisation.The new PEN is an opportunity to build greater coherence of policy planning and set clear energy efficiency and clean energy technology targets for 2030.Based on the different long-term energy scenarios for the energy sector,the PEN should confirm the possible targets and investment needed for the technology shift towards a more digital,decentralised and decarbonised energy sector as an enabler of broader sustainable development.The PEN should also identify the needed investments in energy research,development and innovation in Colombia.Greater competition in energy markets is important to attract needed investments.Ecopetrol continues to account for two-thirds of the activity in the oil and gas sector.Colombian energy market design and policy have followed a fundamentally market-driven approach since the mid-1990s,when the power sector was unbundled and opened to private investment.However,market power persists in the electricity sector due to the integration of generation and retail.Power system planning,new grids and regulation will be required to accompany the shift from todays hydro-dominated power market to a more flexible and diverse market design.An initial auction for battery storage was successful to optimise the use of the transmission grid.Colombia has a largely decarbonised power sector thanks to the significant role of hydropower and bioenergy.Electricity demand is expected to increase as a result of economic growth and the electrification of end-use sectors,an opportunity to decarbonise the transport sector over time.A stronger focus on energy efficiency is needed to reduce emissions and support affordable clean energy.A diversified mix of generation technologies will emerge and opportunities for efficiency need to be harvested.Clarity is also needed on the targets and policies for different new clean energy technologies,for example the deployment of CCS and geothermal,in line with long-term plans.Technology road maps for these areas would provide clarity for policy actions.Clarifying responsibilities and consistently applying them in planning documents,especially in energy efficiency,where responsibilities are widely dispersed would improve implementation.Colombias high degree of income inequality influences energy policy making.Despite recent progress,in 2021,3%of the population did not have access to electricity.Colombia still has 1 million families,or 6%of households,relying on firewood for cooking,lacking access to modern cooking fuels.Around 45%of the countrys population lives under the poverty line.This is most evident for La Guajira,where indigenous groups make up 42%of the total population.Over time,the government has developed energy pricing and subsidy mechanisms covering gasoline and diesel,electricity,natural gas,and liquefied petroleum gas(LPG).These arrangements need to be structured to avoid discouraging energy efficiency while boosting the uptake of clean energy and targeting the needs of vulnerable groups.When preparing the PND in 2022,the government placed a strong focus on engaging the entire society in the countrys energy transition to generate consensus.This is critical to translate policy goals into support for infrastructure projects on the ground,ensure social justice and support vulnerable communities.The IEA supports Colombias agenda for a just energy transition.Experience from the IEAs Global Commission on People-Centred Transitions provides useful learnings for the government of Colombia,helping to boost local economic benefits and the transition to clean energy and new job opportunities.IEA.CC BY 4.0.1.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY9 ENERGY INSIGHTS These include suggestions on job development and skills shifts,notably for employment in fossil sectors,and the range of new jobs in such future industries as renewables,hydrogen and critical minerals.Colombias transition will involve ramping up investments in clean energy while compensating for declining oil/gas/coal export revenues.The oil sector has contributed an annual average of close to 2%of gross domestic product(GDP)and 13%of the total income of the national government in the las