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2023中国零售地产市场报告.pdf

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1、2024220232 202301302200333043905442023202320192024211.512.713.58.69.15.212.612.9%10.2%6.9%-36.6%5.9%-42.7%142.2%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%03691215201720182019202020212022202330.833.736.622.026.116.738.59.6%9.4%8.4%-39.8%18.5%-35.9%130.4%-50%0%50%100%150%01020304020172018201920202021202220234|20242023202

2、4201002003004005006007008009001,00020192020202120222023ABC02004006008001,0001,2002023 ABC+55.3%+29.9%+48.1%ABC5|202420231004.1808.1899.3774.1953.302505007501,0001,25020232022202120202019元49,100.020,444.029,190.722,286.357,250.9010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000亿元48.925.332.528.860.101020304

3、050607085.8%35.6%51.0%38.9%81.4%42.1%54.0%47.9%0%20%40%60%80%100%20192019202320192019-2023202426|202420232019201931.6%53.5%50.9%79.0%75.3%94.5%103.2%98.7%87.2%70.1%73.9%68.0%66.8%86.8%72.6%60.7%42.8%88.6%83.4%119.1%112.8%104.1%109.4%119.0%19.3%36.7%31.2%69.9%58.6%56.7%77.0%74.8%78.6%59.9%56.3%39.2%4

4、4.0%65.6%60.7%44.2%35.1%73.1%50.6%100.7%94.9%101.5%105.6%107.7%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%20192019202427|2024202320242-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%-505101520253020172018201920202021202220238|202420232024244.0%57.6%47.4%65.7%55.4%50.2%56.3%69.0%66.0%55.9%64.0%58.6%-6.8%58.3%32.8%66.6%77.2%83.2%82.5%-20%0

5、%20%40%60%80%100%20082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232023202320239|202420232023202428.9%-2.1%-9.7%-5.0%3.9%3.2%5.1%3.0%0.5%-5.6%-0.1%9.2%9.1%15.9%10.5%1.7%1.0%3.7%4.6%6.5%8.0%4.8%6.5%-16.4%-22.7%-21.1%-4.0%-1.5%8.4%-1.7%-8.1%-8.4%-14.1%2.9%26.3%43.8%35.1%16.1%15.8%12.4%13

6、.8%17.1%25.8%30.0%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%20221-2345678910111220231-234567891011122023-3.9%12.5%-0.2%7.2%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%202020212022202310|2024.2023202305,00010,00015,00020,000202422023ABC7.8%2.9%4.7%7.3%8.6%6.7%8.6%5.5%9.0%10.0%4.8%3.7%6.2%6.5%5.2%12.6%6.4%6.9%2.9%12.6%7.0%7.7%8.8

7、%11|20242023202320242-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%07,00014,00021,00028,00035,00042,00049,00001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 1220192020202120222023121-212|2024

8、2023202313|202420231-1220231-12%20231-9%20231-6%20231-348,614 5.94.66.8-2.323,219 6.66.57.510.318,887 5.25.34.87.514,095 12.910.612.89.08,719 0.5-0.61.0-1.77,576 2.73.55.05.16,814 7.03.94.1-5.16,710 5.18.711.116.55,507 10.69.88.66.84,142 5.16.88.65.94,126 -6.1-6.8-3.9-1.43,310 13.312.217.513.62,991

9、3.22.01.01.81,569 -7.8-7.9-6.7-2.41,516 2.83.13.84.61,186 11.28.310.55.820242202320242-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%20197201982019920191020191120191220201-22020320204202052020620207202082020920201020201120201220211-22021320214202152021620217202182021920211020211120211220221-22022320224202252022620227202

10、282022920221020221120221220231-22023320234202352023620237202382023920231020231120231214|20242023W2024216.5%-0.8%14.1%4.0%11.0%20.7%23.6%24.5%27.2%27.6%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,0002019202020212022202330.9%32.7%17.8%16.1%11.2%15.4%-15.1%8.3%3.5%10.8%19

11、.8%10.0%12.5%5.7%7.1%-18%-12%-6%0%6%12%18%24%30%36%2019202020212022202315|2024202302505007501,0001,2501,5001,7502,000亿元202220230%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%20232022110%5%10%15%20%25%30%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,000202020212022202311202220232024216|2024202320242-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%06,00012,00018,000

12、24,00030,00036,00042,000201420152016201720182019202020212022202317|202420232019-202328.2%23.4%13.3%11.7%8.8%6.2%5.9%2.4%30.2%24.6%13.0%9.6%8.7%5.8%5.9%2.2%29.8%23.4%13.1%10.8%8.8%5.9%5.9%2.4%30.5%24.0%13.0%10.1%8.6%5.6%5.8%2.4%29.8%22.7%13.6%10.8%9.2%5.5%5.7%2.6%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%201920202021202

13、220232024218|20242023-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%2018201920202021202220232018201920202021202220232018201920202021202220232018201920202021202220232018201920202021202220232018201920202021202220232018201920202021202220232018201920202021202220232018201920202021202220232024219|202420232023141,889,000 7,914,000

14、-1.0%10.5%-0.7A44,657,0002,559,000-0.2%7.4%-1.6B47,954,0002,317,000-1.3%11.2%+0.1C49,277,0003,038,000-1.4%12.6%-0.64ABCGDP1061.51120242211,600+1.42 ABC21|20242023ABC16,550,000649,000-2.5%11.0%-1.315,023,0001,152,000 1.8%6.2%-2.67,483,000286,000 0.2%3.0%-0.05,601,000472,000 0.5%5.5%-1.511,644,000473,

15、000-1.1%12.3%-0.08,884,000372,000-1.4%15.2%-0.98,847,000259,000-1.2%13.0%+0.76,409,000235,000-0.9%3.6%-0.56,281,000585,000-1.9%9.7%+2.35,890,000394,000-1.9%10.5%+0.17,181,000584,000-1.5%11.2%-0.76,988,000673,000-1.3%18.4%-0.95,878,000125,000-2.3%8.8%-0.45,045,000355,000 0.8%10.5%+0.24,484,000383,000

16、-1.2%13.0%-0.54,335,00093,000-1.7%13.6%-4.24,311,000410,000-2.3%14.9%+0.44,161,0000-0.4%11.8%+1.32,636,0000-1.6%14.0%-1.02,473,000100,000-2.0%6.4%-0.51,787,000316,000-2.3%14.3%+0.32023202422023202322|2024.2023201920232024205001,0001,5002,000*2023202302004006008001,0001,2001,4001,60020132014201520162

17、01720182019202020212022202320232020ABC23|2024202320242A32.3%B29.3%C38.4%202320239.3 10.0 12.5 23.5 25.9 28.6 31.6 35.5 37.2 38.3 39.4 41.0 47.2 47.3 58.4 58.5 64.9 67.3 115.2 0204060801001201402023791.4ABC201824|202420232023202422023NThe BoxZXII New BlockCOCO ParkDT 51 IFCX14.6%6.8%6.5%6.3%6.1%&5.9%

18、3.2%2.9%2.8%2.5%42.4%57.6%25|2024202330.770.690.680.660.650.570.560.550.510.510.490.470.460.450.420.420.350.330.330.300.240.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9ABC210.50/0.03/20242120222023*12142226|2024.2023020406080100120272024202420242ABC27|2024.20232024-202620242050100150200250202420252026ABC28|20242023

19、2024220232023*202320236.4%8.8%10.5%11.2%11.8%13.0%13.6%14.0%14.3%14.9%18.4%3.6%9.7%10.5%12.3%13.0%15.2%3.0%5.5%6.2%11.0%-10.0%-8.0%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%*3.6%8.8%10.5%13.0%3.0%5.5%15.2%14.9%18.4%12.3%11.8%13.0%6.2%11.2%14.0%6.4%10.5%14.3%11.0%9.7%13.6%ABC29|2024.20230%2%4

20、%6%8%10%12%14%4Q091Q102Q103Q104Q101Q112Q113Q114Q111Q122Q123Q124Q121Q132Q133Q134Q131Q142Q143Q144Q141Q152Q153Q154Q151Q162Q163Q164Q161Q172Q173Q174Q171Q182Q183Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q232024*2025*2026*2027*ABC2024230|2024.2023202420%2%4%6%8%10%

21、12%14%16%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,60020052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024*2025*2026*“2024202531|20242023-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%3Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q232024*2025*2026*2027*0%20%40%60%80%10

22、0%2014201520162017201820192020202120221Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q232024232|202420232023231 ABABU23221AB3EE2ABxy34|20242023122023“20182.420231.826%20232842018 2 35|202420231,5003,0004,500201820192020202120222023E01020503042023112019112023IDC2024218072023CHIC PARK202320222021IDC20232.71TechInsights202323.5%5101

23、0205030420191140%(1%)3.33.32.92.7-15%0%15%30%-2024202020212022202336|20242023Z122 AB增长“37|2024202320231-9141%279%150%275%0%100%200%300%88,9576,876.9928500503.22024+155.3%1.35+200.7%797.32019+9.4%2019+5.6%0%200%400%600%800%1000%1200%1QYTD2QYTD3QYTD101724182023 20231022*2024238|20242023202301020304050

24、6070808070605040302010020222023202320232023202320222023202389483129399196-50.9%104837560632322-49.1%/0.90.60.40.50.630.62-3.6%20222023 iBrandi2024210 11 1212345678912345678910 11 1212345678912345678910 11 1210 11 1240|202420232023051015202512345678910 11 1212345678910 11 1220222023 iBrandi2024220222

25、120231259.5%41|20242023 iBrandi202428.1%7.1%6.2%3C/5.9%21.7%21.7%8.7%58.4%202310.5234202342|202420232023202422023202321791.72.3%20202023211.043|202420232023仲量联行版权所有REITs2023201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024*2025*2026*47|202420102024220233.0%-1.3%-9%-6%-3%0%3%6%9%12%15%18%9

26、,7009,8009,90010,00010,10010,20010,30010,40010,50010,6002021Q4 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4202348|20242023202422023TOP101.7%2.0%3.0%3.4%4.9%5.9%8.7%12.2%13.5%15.5%0.2%0.6%1.7%-0.1%-2.1%-1.3%-1.5%-3.1%-1.3%-5.6%-20.0%-16.0%-12.0%-8.0%-4.0%0.0%4.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2023202

27、349|20242024280901001101201301402018012018032018052018072018092018112019012019032019052019072019092019112020012020032020052020072020092020112021012021032021052021072021092021112022012022032022052022072022092022112023012023032023052023072023092023110-200100100100202320232024+50|2024202422024202343%15

28、%13%12%9%5%3%REITsREITsREITREITREITREIT301,186.7144,125.8102,741.677,894.381.539.610.710.02023*98.8%98.1%98.4%88.7%2023*50,241.616,341.35,770.13,377.669.235.810.910.0REITs2023324REITsREITsREITsREITREITREITREITREITREITREITs20242*1-9REITs1-6REITsREITsREITs51|20242023REITsREITs20242REITs2024REITs20234.

29、8%4.9%4.9%6.7%3.7%4.3%4.8%3.6%4.5%4.5%4.6%4.6%4.7%4.8%5.3%5.4%4.3%4.3%4.3%4.4%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%6.7%4.8%4.9%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%52|202454|202418+/+IP3.272.7AIM15202422023市场因素外部因素供给迭代55|2024202320242/THE BOX20232023/WAVEBOX202319032015/20222023/2023202356|202420232023-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%-8-404

30、812162012.6%13.0%16.1%3.3%3.1%4.3%AB6.5%-0.4%4.5%4.9%7.5%8.4%8.8%26.3%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%*20232023 26.3%35%2022*20232024257|202420232023*111000111100111010001111211158|202432.334.237.049.352.757.963.676.997.699.501020304050607080901005.45.74.14.42.55.8-50%0%50%100%150%200%-20246820182019202020212

31、02220232024220236.2201993.9%20191.6%2023202425,2465,8426,4607,1577,8038,7819,8869,03710,64510,59012,11439.7%40.3%41.1%41.8%42.6%44.2%45.9%42.6%44.2%43.2%45.2%38%40%42%44%46%48%50%52%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232.9%4.9%7.3%7.9%6.8%5.9%5.6%5.5%5.6

32、%5.9%5.8%9.2%13.9%19.8%22.6%21.4%20.5%19.4%18.7%18.5%19.4%20.4%20.3%19.4%18.9%19.0%19.5%20.0%0%5%10%15%20%25%1-21-31-41-51-61-71-81-91-101-111-12*2023*2023760|2024202361|20243.5%-1.0%-0.9%-2.5%-0.2%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%20192020202120223Q23 YTDCPI2024266.5%62.1%56.4%56.3%24.5%25.6%26.0%23.3%9.0%12.3%17.5%20.4%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2020202120223Q23 YTDCPI20232024vs 62|2024

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