国际直接投资学：Chapter 1 Introduction.ppt

单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,1,Yaqi Wang,International Direct Investment,Roadmap,We have 17 weeks,34 classes for this course.,Macro Perspective,Section I Landscape of International Investment and Policies,Ch1 Introduction Ch2 Investment Policy,Section II Global Integration,Ch3 Economic Integration Ch4 Balance Sheet Ch5 Financial Market,Micro Perspective,Section III Investment Theory,Ch6 Investment Theory,Section IV Strategies,，,Operation and Examples,Ch7 Strategies Ch8 Operation Ch9 Financial Management Ch10 Corporate Governance Ch11 MNCs in Todays World Ch12 Chinas Increasing Role in International Direct Investment,Course Information,International Business,7th Edition,by Michael R.Czinkota,跨国公司与国际直接投资，第二版，赵春明等编,Multinational Firms and The Theory of International Trade,James Markusen,Course Evaluation:Attendency(20%)+Group Presentation(20%)+Final Exam(60%),Public Email:iinvestment2016 Password:economics,Chapter 1 Introduction,To understand the history and impact of International Direct Investment.,To learn the definition of International Direct Investment,To recognize the growth of global linkages today,Foreign Direct Investment,According to IMF and OECD definitions,FDI,reflects the aim of obtaining,a lasting interest,by a resident entity of one economy in an enterprise that is resident in another economy.,The“lasting interest”implies,a long-term relationship between the direct investor and the invested enterprise and a significant degree of influence on the management of the latter.,The fifth edition of IMFs Balance of Payment Manual defines,the owner of 10%or more,of a companys capital as,a direct investor,.,International Investment includes FDIs and ODIs.,What is International Direct Investment?,Direct Investment VS Indirect Investment,国际直接投资是指投资主体在海外投资兴办企业，以取得国外企业的经营控制权为特征的投资行为；国际间接投资则指投资主体仅以资本增值或实施对外援助与开发，而不以控制经营权为目的的投资行为，如国际证券投资和长期贷款项目等。,主要区别在是否投资者对投资对象具有实际控制权。目前国际上对判断这一界限的数量还没有形成统一标准。例如,IMF,在,Balance of International Payments,中认为，在所投资的企业中拥有,25%,以上的股权可认为在所拥有的企业具有控制权；而美国商务部规定，美国公司对国外投资时如拥有某公司,10%,以上的投票权，即可划为直接投资。法国关于国际直接投资的定义则更加独特：海外投资者持有超过,1/3,的资本才为外商对法国的直接投资。一般我们认定，超过企业资本,15%,的外国投资即可认定为国际直接投资。,MNC,根据联合国跨国公司中心定义，跨国公司具备以下三要素：,第一，公司必须是包括设在两个或两个以上国家的工商企业实体；,第二，公司必须在一个决策体系下进行经营，有共同的政策，能通过一个或几个决策中心采取一致对策和共同战略。,第三，该实体通过股权或其他方式形成的联系，使其中一个或几个实体有可能对其他实体实施重大影响，特别是同其它实体达到知识资源的分享和责任的共担。,MNC,在跨国公司的经营活动中，母公司,(parent company),在国外的附属企业有子公司,(subsidiary company),，关联企业,(associate),和分支机构,(branch office),。子公司通常界定为要有,50%,以上的投票权；关联企业则至少要用,10%,以上的投票权；分支结构是指在国外的独资或合资公司。,母公司所在国被称为母国,(Home Country),，母公司直接投资所产生的子公司所在国被称为东道国,(Host Country),，子公司是母公司在东道国的法人。,MNC,跨国公司的明确产生最早可以追溯到,19,世纪,60,年代。发达资本主义国家的大企业，在国外设立分支机构和子公司，通过这种直接投资，扩大其业务和范围，以攫取高额利润。最早进行跨国经营的,3,家制造业企业是：,1865,年，德国费里德里克拜耳化学公司在美国纽约开设了一家制造苯胺的工厂。,1866,年，瑞典制造甘油炸药的阿夫列诺贝尔公司在德国汉堡开设炸药厂。,1877,年，美国胜家缝纫机公司在英国的格拉斯哥建立缝纫机装配厂。,跨国公司规模在迅猛增长。到,21,世纪初，世界跨国公司综述已经超过,6,万家。,Types of MNCs,资源开发型跨国公司。目的是为了获取母国急需的短缺资源或者追寻高额利润，例如种植业中的烟叶、咖啡等原料，采掘业中的矿石，燃料等。,制造型跨国公司。这类跨国公司主要从事最终产品和中间产品的制造。包括钢材、有色金属、化工产品、机电产品等。,服务型跨国公司。这类跨国公司主要从事非物质产品生产，在贸易、金融、运输、通信等行业从事活动。,20,世纪,70,年代以后，服务型跨国公司呈现了迅速发展的趋势。,Types of MNCs,Horizontal/Vertical,Horizontal MNCs,跨国公司内部基本上经营同种行业，生产同类产品。母公司和众多子公司基本上在工艺技术、原材料、产品销售等方面基本上是同类型的。例如，饮料行业的可口可乐公司。,Vertical MNCs,跨国公司内部，无论母公司和子公司之间，还是子公司与子公司之间，都不是完全制造同类产品、经营通航业务的。目前，在专业化和联合化水平比较高的公司都属于此类。如苹果。,Mixed Type,Types of FDIs,对外直接投资的方式具体包括：在国外设立跨国公司的分支机构、附属机构、子公司或同东道国共同创办合资企业；通过购买外国企业股票而拥有该企业达一定比例的股权，如,10%,以上；用国外所的利润进行再投资等。,最常用的,UNCTAD,的分类方式：,Greenfield Investment,（绿地投资）,跨国公司等国际投资主体在东道国境内依照东道国法律设立新的企业。在新企业中，外国投资者可以独资；也可以合资。绿地投资是国际直接投资最传统形式，跨国直接投资在早期都以此种形式设立。,跨国投资者的绿地投资目前一般都是以股权参与的形式进行的，其突出优点是投资者在投资项目、投资地点以及投资规模等问题的选择上有较大的主动权和灵活性。相比于跨国并购投资，绿地投资直接增加了东道国的资本存量，对提高技术、扩大就业有直接而快速的作用。,绿地投资的缺陷是前期筹建工作较长，投资收益产生缓慢，特别是一些较大型的项目，如果建设期间东道国政治经济状况发生变化，后果严重。,Types of FDI,M&A,，跨国并购方式 是指外国投资者兼并或收购东道国现有企业的全部或部分股权，从而获取对该企业的控制权。,跨国并购在,90,年代后迅速发展。其最大的优点是可直接获得东道国现有企业的资产，大大缩短项目的建设周期，从而能把握机会，使自己的产品迅速进入目标市场。,M&A,Merger:,吸收兼并,A+B=A;,创立兼并,A+B=C,Acquisition:,一家企业在证券市场上或私下用现金、债券或股票购买另一家公司的资产（资产收购）或股票（股票收购），以获得对该企业的控制权。,Types of FDIs,Horizontal M&A,指生产同类产品的企业，或是具有竞争关系的经营领域相同的销售商或服务商之间的并购。目的是扩大生产规模或减少竞争对手。目前横向并购在跨国并购中仍然是最重要的。,例子：德国的戴姆勒奔驰公司以,445,亿美元受够了美国的克莱斯勒公司。,英国石油公司于,1998,年以,550,亿美元收购了美国的阿莫科公司。,Vertical FDIs,生产和销售的连续性中互为上下游关系企业之间的并购。纵向并购的目的通常是为获得成本较低的原材料和零部件的来源或扩大产品的销售。,纵向并购又分前向并购和后向并购。前向并购是向其最终用户的并购，如彩色显像管制造企业并购一家彩色电视机生产企业。,后向并购是向其供应商的并购，如中国首钢集团并购秘鲁一家铁矿公司。,Types of FDIs,实际中纵向并购在并购中所占的比例一致较小，大约只有,10%,左右。一般来说纵向并购后企业的整合相对比较困难。,混合并购,(Conglomerate M&A),是指既不是生产同一类产品，又不是上下游企业等企业间的并购。混合并购的目的是分散经营风险以及加大规模效应。,年份,并购企业数,并购金额,横向,纵向,混合,横向,纵向,混合,1987,51.3,4.6,44.1,54.6,17.3,28.1,1995,53.0,5.6,41.4,65.5,2.7,31.8,1999,56.2,6.2,37.6,71.2,1.8,27.0,Goals of FDIs,对外直接投资的主要动因：,-,追求高额利润,-,资源导向型（自然资源、人力资源）,-,市场导向型（开辟新市场、保护和扩大原有市场、克服贸易限制）,大型跨国公司不仅在国际投资领域占据主导地位，在国际投资领域也占据主导地位。日本经济学家小岛清认为，跨国公司的对外投资与对外贸易是互补关系，可以互相促进。在贸易保护盛行的条件下，发展对外投资是维护与扩大出口规模的一种有效形式。,垄断优势考虑 尼克尔博克在海默的,“,垄断优势,”,理论基础上，提出了,“,进攻性投资,”,和,“,防御性投资,”,两个概念。假如一家大型跨国公司率先在某一行业进行对外投资（即进攻性投资），则其他的跨国公司也会紧跟其后，在同一地区的同一行业进行投资（即防御型投资）。,1.Early Theories,早期的国际直接投资研究笼统地置于国际资本流动范畴之中。,较早的国际直接投资理论源于纳克斯（,R.Nurkse,）,发表于1933年的题为资本流动的原因和效应的论文。,运用资本流动的分析思路，即国与国直接的利息差引起资本流动；,关注产业资本流动，将利息差引申为利润差，由此解释国际直接投资的发生机理。,麦克道格尔、肯普的理论（,G.D.A.MacDougall,&Kemp,）,采用几何图，根据资本收益率差别引起资本流动的一般理论来解释,FDI,的发生及其福利效果，是最有影响的资本流动理论,。,纳克斯的理论,基本观点,资本跨国流动最直接的动机是利润，而且是产业资本的利润,引起跨国资本流动的主要因素是产业资本,局限性,只解释通过借贷进行的跨国资本流动,没有把国际直接投资和间接投资区分开来,2.Mainstream Theories(micro-level theories),微观理论是从微观主体，即企业的视角来解释和说明国际直接投资的发生机理，具体包括：,厂商垄断优势理论,内部化理论,产品生命周期理论,厂商增长理论,A.Monopolistic Competition,Analyzed by,S.H.Hymer,in 1960,.,Theory Assumption:Market Imperfection Competition,理论核心观点：,在市场不完全的情况下，对外直接投资是在厂商具有垄断或寡占优势的条件下形成的。,这种垄断或寡占优势被称为,“,独占性的生产要素,”,优势，或厂商特有优势。,这种厂商特有优势可以源于厂商的物质资本，比如大规模的资本优势，但更主要的是源于厂商所掌握的先进技术、高效率管理知识等无形资产。,B.,Market Imperfections(Internalization),Formulated in the second half of the 1970s by P.J.Buckley and M.Casson,two economists of Reading University in the United Kingdom.,Company undertakes FDI to internalize,a transaction that is being made inefficient by a market imperfection.,23,理论核心观点：,厂商,特有优势是在国内形成的，必须以低成本的方式转移到国外，因转移而发生的成本必须低于由转移而带来的收益。,跨国企业为降低转移成本，或者说是交易成本，倾向于构造一个内部化市场以替代通常的外部化市场。所谓内部化是指,“,建立由公司内部调拨价格起作用的内部市场，使之像固定的外部市场同样有效地发挥作用,”,。,为了建立这样的内部化组织，企业在向国外扩张的过程中，国际直接投资就成为当然的选择，而不是国际贸易等其他方式。,C.International Product Cycle Theory,Elaborated in 1966 by the French Scholar R.Vernon.,A theory stating that a company will begin by exporting its product and later undertake FDI as a product moves through its life cycle.,It described the dynamic process between international trade and foreign investment.,Life cycle of product,Beginning,Growth,Mature,Decline,t,Q,Three types of countries:,The most developed countries:Innovation country,such as America.,Emerging industrial countries,such as Japan,European countries,etc.,The developing countries,Q,t,The most developed countries,Emerging industrial countries,The developing countries,Product transfer according to the Life cycle,D.,厂商增长理论,理论来源：,彭罗斯发表于1956年的对外投资与厂商增长的论文。,理论假设前提：,在所有权与经营权相分离前提下，经理控制的企业有追求企业规模增长最大化的内在动因。,理论核心观点：,对外直接投资是厂商追求增长最大化的自然结果。增长最大化厂商的对外扩张一般要经历出口、许可生产、跨国企业三个阶段。这既是厂商追求增长最大化的内在要求，又是增长最大化厂商对外投资的战略体现。,比较优势理论,理论来源：,日本一桥大学教授小岛清在20世纪70年代中期根据国际贸易比较成本理论，以日本厂商对外直接投资情况为背景提出的。,理论基础：,采用正统国际贸易理论2,2模型，即两个国家和两种产品进行分析。,理论观点：,对外直接投资应该从本国(投资国)已经处于或趋于比较劣势的产业(又称边际产业)依次进行。这些边际产业是对方国家（东道国）具有比较优势或潜在比较优势的产业。从边际产业开始进行投资，可以使对方国家因为缺少资本、技术、经营技能等而未能显现或未能充分显现出来的比较优势，显现出来或增强起来。,Phases of International Investment,Initial and Forming,P,hase,(,Before,191,4,)：,Mainly composed of debt securities investment,（90）,and few productive direct investment(,10,),.,The Roman Empire,Pax Romana,or Roman Peace ensured that merchants were able to travel safely and rapidly.,Common coinage simplified business transactions.,Rome developed a systematic law,central market locations,and an effective communication system;all of which enabled international business to flourish in the Roman Empire.,The growth of the Roman Empire occurred mainly through the linkages of business,32,The Roman Empire (cont.),The decline of the Roman Empire can be attributed in part to:,infighting and increasing decadence,the Pax Romana being no longer enforced,the decline of use and acceptance of the common coinage,declining levels of communication,As a result,former Roman allies cooperated with invaders.,33,Phases of International Investment,1.,Initial and Forming Phase,(end of 18,th,century-1914),Britain,France,Germany,the United States and the Netherlands,worked on the International investment,International investment mainly flowed into areas with abundant,natural resources,International indirect investment was the main form of,international investment at the time.,International private investment was active.,United States:A Global Leader,The United States has developed a world leadership position due to:,its use of market-based transactions in the Western world,a broad flow of ideas,goods,and services across national borders,an encouragement of international communication and transportation,Pax Americana,an American sponsored and enforced peace,35,The Smoot-Hawley Act,The the,1930s,the U.S.passed the,Smoot-Hawley Act,which raised import duties to reduce the volume of goods coming into the U.S.,The act was passed in the hope that it would restore domestic employment.,The result was a worldwide depression and the collapse of the world financial system.,36,Phases of International Investment,2.,Downturn and Wandering Phase,(1914-1945),The total amount of international investment declined,3.,Restorative Growth Phase,(194,6,-1979),The,scale of international investment expanded rapidly,International direct investment became the main type of international investment.,Phases of International Investment,4.Rapid,Development Phase,(,1980s,),Rapid Expansion of the scale of international direct investment,Developed countries being the main destination of international investment,More flexible ways to participate in international investment,国际投资的进展（,1989-1999,）按,GDP,比重）单位：,%,Phases of International Investment,5.Exploding Phase(Fast growing),（,1990s,）,The total amount of international direct investment increased greatly,Transnational merge&acquisition became the important pattern of international direct investment,The emerging developing countries became the hotspot of international investment,Global inflows of,FDI,1990-2015,$billions,Data source:UNCTAD Database,Global inflows of FDI,1990-2014,by groups of countries,$billions,Data source:UNCTAD Database,Inflows of FDI to developing countries,1990-2014,by,region,$billions,Data source:UNCTAD Database,Average Plant Salary and Wages,(per worker,dollars per hour),44,Mergers&Acquisitions,Explanations for increased M&A,gain presence in new geographic market,increase international competitiveness,fill in production gaps of firms,reduce costs(r&d,marketing,production and distribution),45,46,Value($millions)and Number of Global Cross-border M&A,1990-2014,47,Value($millions)and Number of Announced Greenfield FDI Projects,2003-2014,The Composition of Trade,Between the 1960s and the 1990s the importance of manufactured goods increased while the role of primary commodities(i.e.rubber or mining)had decreased.,More recently,there has been a shift of manufacturing to countries with emerging economies.,There has been an increase in the area of services trade in recent years.,48,Investment Composition,（一）,Changes of the industrial pattern of international investment,1.Befort the 1,st,W,orld War,Developed countries such as Britain,France,US and Germany invested in the primary industries and infrastructures,but rarely invested in the manufacturing sectors.,2.Between the 1,st,World War and the 2,nd,World War,The input into manufacturing sectors increased.,3.After the,2,nd,World War,International,investment focused on the second industrythe second industry,。,4.Since the middle of 1980s,New trendthe proportion of the third industry(service industry)increased sharply,.,Investment Composition,The first industry,：,a relative low and decreasing proportion,The second industry,：,occupying an important position with the proportion increasing slightly,From labor-intensive to capital&technology-intensive,The continued strong trend of international investment,The third industry:developing with the fastest speed;proportion of the third industry increased significantly,resource,labor,capital,technoloty,resource,labor,1980,1985,1990,The industrial distribution of FDI in home country,Other manufacturing,resource,labor,capital,technology,51,capital,technoloty,Other manufacturing,Other manufacturing,The trend of the third industry(service industry),-Reasons why it develops so fast,Many countries implement the liberalization policy in the service industry.,The microelectronics technology develops rapidly,The financial service industry becomes the industry that absorbs the most FDI,Industrial multinational corporations also conduct large-scale investments in the service industry,China role in International Direct Investment,Chinas Inward Foreign direct investment,Chinas Outward Foreign direct investment,FDI inflows of China,2000-2015,$billions,China became the country with the largest inflow of FDI in 2014,FDI inflows of Chinadistribution of home country/area,2014,$millions,Most of FDI inflows come from HK,with 81268 million dollars in 2014,FDI inflows of Chinadistribution of industry and investing type,2014,OFDI of China Total amount with the ranking in the world,$billions,year,flow,stock,value,ranking,value,ranking,2002,2.7,26,29.9,25,2003,2.85,21,33.2,25,2004,5.5,20,44.8,27,2005,12.26,17,57.2,24,2006,21.16,13,90.63,23,2007,26.51,17,117.91,22,2008,55.91,12,183.97,18,2009,56.53,5,245.75,16,2010,68.81,5,317.21,17,2011,74.65,6,424.78,13,2012,87.8,3,531.94,13,2013,107.84,3,660.48,11,2014,123.12,3,882.64,8,Comparison with other countries/areasOFDI flow,2014,$billions,OFDI of ChinaDistribution of industry(2014),OFDI of ChinaDistribution of industry(2014),OFDI of ChinaComposition of destinations(2014),value($billion),proportion(%),Developing economies,23.83,19.4,Developed economies,97.68,79.3,Transition economies,1.61,1.3,ranking,country(area),value($,billion),proportion(%),1,HK,70.867,57.60,2,US,7.596,6.2,3,Luxembourg,4.578,3.7,4,BritishVirginIslands,4.57,3.7,5,CaymanIslands,4.192,3.4,6,Australia,4.049,3.3,7,Singapore,2.814,2.3,8,UK,1.499,1.2,9,Germany,1.439,1.2,10,Indonesia,1.272,1,Difference between IFDI and OFDI of China,1990-2014,$millions,